Hostage Protests strengthen Hamas

 Based on article by Herb Keinon, full article at  https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-

FOR HAMAS, hostages are not an afterthought or a battlefield improvisation; they are the strategy. Seizing Israelis alive – or even dead – delivers what no rocket barrage or ambush can: leverage. Leverage over Israel’s leaders, over its politics, over its domestic agenda.

This is not new. The history of Israel’s conflicts with its enemies is littered with hostage deals – from the 1985 Jibril Agreement that freed more than 1,150 security prisoners, including Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin, in exchange for three captured soldiers, to the 2011 Gilad Schalit deal that saw 1,027 prisoners released for a single captive. Each precedent reinforced the lesson that hostages are Israel’s soft underbelly.

Hamas internalized this lesson long ago. The October 7 massacres were not only about killing, but also about kidnapping. Hostages were carted back into Gaza in cars, on motorcycles, even on foot. They were paraded, photographed, and hidden underground. They were immediately transformed into bargaining chips, insurance policies, and tools of psychological warfare.

Sunday’s protests ostensibly by the hostage families but more about protesting the government, which culminated in a massive rally in Tel Aviv only underscored the point. Thousands of Israelis publicly broadcast to Hamas just how much power it still holds. The outpouring of solidarity was genuine and moving and reflected the country’s core values, but Hamas surely saw it as confirmation that its most reliable weapon still works.

Three days later, with Israel on the cusp of sending tens of thousands more soldiers and reservists into Gaza for an assault on Hamas’s last strongholds in Gaza City and the central refugee camps, Hamas sent a squad to attack an army outpost in Khan Yunis to take more hostages.

The message to Israelis was clear and twofold. First, come back into Gaza, and this is what awaits you. And second, we can – and will – take more hostages.

HAMAS’S FORMULA is brutally simple: kidnap Israelis, watch the country tie itself in knots, and wait. It worked in 1985, it worked in 2011, and Hamas calculated it would work again in 2023. The critics argue that unless Israel decisively breaks the cycle, it will work again in 2026, 2027, and beyond.

This is why many argue that Sunday’s rallies, as strong an outpouring of solidarity as they were, only serve to encourage Hamas. Every mother and father chanting in Hostage Square in Tel Aviv signals to Hamas commanders in Rafah’s tunnels that the tactic still pays dividends.

The Khan Yunis attackers may not have succeeded in taking new hostages, but the attempt was a reminder: Hamas will keep trying because the prize is great and the vulnerability is glaring.

The diplomatic route – striking deals – offers certainty but at a cost. Each exchange saves lives today but increases the likelihood of more kidnappings tomorrow. The Schalit deal is now largely viewed as a cautionary tale: among the hundreds of murderers released, many of whom went on to carry out other heinous attacks, was Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of October 7.