Thursday, October 9, 2025

Civil War In Gaza?

 

So, point 1 of the 21-point “Peace Plan” was confirmed: a ceasefire and Hamas’s release of Israeli hostages in exchange for 2,000 convicted Palestinian terrorists from internationally recognized groups.

 Although there is an element of relief, it did not take long for the senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan in an interview with Arab media to interpret the agreement somewhat differently from the 21-point plan.

a)     * the agreement reached by the parties stipulates the definitive end of the war in Gaza. (not in the agreement)

b)    *  the mediators provided guarantees that “the occupation” (Israel) would not violate the agreement and left the announcement of the end of the war to the American side.

c)    *  there will be no prisoner exchanges unless the end of the war is declared. (not in the agreement)

d)     * the central point in the agreement is the end of the war.

Underlying the focus on getting an agreement. the main issue occupying the internal security channels of Hamas since the announcement of reaching an agreement is how they will get their hands on (revenge) the militia members of Yasser Abu Shabab and their counterparts in Khan Yunis and in the northern part of the Strip. (that cooperated with Israel)

The main thing this teaches us is that Hamas is still very interested in eliminating the alternatives to its rule in Gaza – it wants to continue ruling the Strip and to fortify its control by eliminating public rivals – Yasser Abu Shabab is the symbol of this, as far as they are concerned.

Does this mean a civil war can break out? Watch this space.

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