Friday, May 30, 2025

Why is Hamas so confident that it’s winning?

 For full article go to https://www.jns.org/why-is-hamas-so-confident-that-its-winning/ 

Khaled Mashaal, the head of Hamas’s “political wing,” in his luxurious living quarters in Doha, Qatar, thinks the war has gone just fine. He thinks that Hamas is “winning the war” and is confident that the genocidal Islamist organization will, despite the battering it has received from the Israel Defense Forces, play a “decisive” role in Gaza in the future.

It takes an extraordinary amount of chutzpah to sit in a comfortable place of exile where you are protected by Qatar—an ally of Iran and Hamas—while the Gulf State also pretends to be friendly with the United States. It’s odd for a “political” leader to be so blithe about a conflict that has, despite the inflated statistics of civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip produced by Hamas, certainly inflicted tremendous harm on his own people. By hiding from the IDF in a warren of tunnels the size of the New York subway system underneath civilian homes, they set in motion a confrontation that guaranteed that much of the Strip would be destroyed. And Hamas itself has been severely hurt. Reportedly, 20,000 operatives have been killed, and all of its organized military formations are no longer combat-effective. The same is true of its ability to send long-range missiles into Israel.

Survival equals a Hamas victory

By any normal definition of victory or defeat, in the aftermath of its orgy of mass murder, rape, torture, kidnappings and wanton destruction in Israel on Oct. 7, Hamas hasn’t been beaten.

While most of us have understandably focused on the fighting in Gaza as well as the way Hezbollah terrorists have been able to essentially de-populate a portion of northern Israel with its indiscriminate fire on civilians, one of the key fronts in this war is not in the Middle East. It’s in the United States.

Hamas have been doing nothing but playing for time. And they expected that the time they needed to outlast the Israeli offensive would be provided to them by Israel’s closest ally.

Combined with the post-Oct. 7 surge in antisemitism made obvious by the pro-Hamas encampments at elite universities, it gave Hamas every reason not to negotiate seriously for a hostage release deal. Hamas viewed all of this as encouragement for its plan to simply hunker down in its remaining tunnel strongholds, and hold out until U.S. and international pressure—heightened by the anti-Israel bias of the mainstream media—forced Israel to stand down and allow the Islamists to emerge as the victor in the war.

Demoralizing the Israelis

While Israelis have every right to protest against their government even in wartime, Hamas also views the unrest inside the Jewish state as an asset. The families of the remaining hostages and Netanyahu’s political opposition now seek to pressure him to give up the war and sign a ceasefire agreement, even if it means essentially handing Gaza back to Hamas and ensuring a repeat of the horrors of Oct. 7. I understand why some feel that way for a number of different reasons, but the fact remains that Hamas is counting on that sentiment.

But above all, Hamas views American pressure on Israel as its ace in the hole.

The reality of Palestinian politics

If left to carry out its tasks without foreign interference, the IDF will eventually eliminate Hamas, though that task will not be accomplished easily or quickly. It can certainly prevent it from returning to power in Gaza, thus ensuring that its reign of terror over Israel as well as Palestinians is over. The terrorist group are counting on feckless American politicians, ideologically motivated leftist demonstrators and political activists, a media that is always prepared to demonize Israeli efforts at self-defense, as well as war-weariness and anguish about the hostages inside Israel to guarantee their survival. We may hope that they are wrong about that, but it’s easy to understand why the terrorist leader is confident that he can outlast the Israelis … with American help.

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