Col.
(ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Today,
the Middle East is a combination of confused Arab nation-states that have
shown their weakness and incapacity to contain the Iranian threat. The
instability of Arab regimes allows the formation of sectarian and
extremist Islamic militias that threaten the Middle Eastern and world
order. The disintegration of the Middle East nation-states has placed the
issue of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on hold.
- Turkey, with its Muslim Brotherhood leader, President
Erdogan, has adopted an unprecedented activist and aggressive policy.
Turkey was deeply involved in facilitating the introduction of ISIS
fighters from Europe and Asia into Syria and Iraq. Turkey's intelligence
services were also implicated in the supply and training of jihadists
in Egypt and Libya. Turkey's intelligence agents were caught red-handed in
Sinai fighting alongside jihadist organizations against the el-Sisi
regime of Egypt.
- This past decade saw the reappearance of Russia as a
superpower in the Middle East. Moscow has sought to fill every vacuum and
to replace the United States politically with new arms and economic deals.
As a result of its massive military presence in Syria, Moscow became the
mediator Israel could not circumvent and a force on the ground with whom
Israel had to coordinate deconfliction arrangements to prevent unwanted
clashes between the militaries of both countries.
- Illustrative of the weakness of the Arab regimes was
their inability to deal with existential dangers. Ethiopia is building the
biggest hydroelectric power facility in Africa on the Blue Nile, whose
inauguration is scheduled for 2022. The Blue Nile provides 85 percent of
the water flow to Egypt downstream. Moreover, filling the Ethiopian dam
threatens the water level in Egypt's Aswan Dam, where a severe drop could
jeopardize the production of electricity by the dam's turbines. There is
little wonder that Egypt has several times contemplated military action
against the Ethiopian dam.
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