According to Hamas,this week 30,000 Hamas soldiers participated in
“Steadfastness and Challenge”, a large-scale two-day military maneuver in the
Gaza Strip.
The Hamas "military wing" is most certainly not
a ragtag collection of amateur terrorists. They are both well equipped and well trained. And they benefit from the ongoing advice and support of
professionals from Iran and elsewhere.
Bottom line: the last thing that Israeli decision makers
should do is assume that Hamas has a transparent simple minded plan for the
coming weeks.
The biggest fear?
Hamas is deploying troops to ostensibly prevent marchers
from reaching Israel this Friday.
If the day passes with only minor incidents, Israeli
decision makers may be lulled into doing what they almost always do: assume that what happened today is going to
repeat itself tomorrow.
Hamas troops defend our border? Fantastic.
Time to reinstate cancelled holiday leave.
And this goes on for a week. And another week.
So by the time we reach Israel Independence Day all the
talking heads are discussing how we should reward Hamas and IDF preparations
start winding down.
And then it happens.
A surge of tens of thousands towards Israel.
There could even be some Arab gunfire blamed on
"radicals" trying to undermine Hamas. But then it happens.
After we quickly exhaust our non-lethal tools, we start
shooting.
And those Hamas troops that have been deployed all this
time on the line do the obvious: start
attacking Israeli forces.
And then?
Suffice it to say that Hamas today has the men, equipment
and training to do a lot more than just cross the line and murder some Israelis
or drag back hostages.
It is sincerely hope that our security people have thought
out of the box when considering what Hamas may do and how to prepare to foil
these possible operations.
As for the obvious challenge of tens of thousands - or
more - streaming over the line, here's one cynical but possibly critical
observation: the international
consequences of killing 20 people or 2,000 is almost virtually identical.
The troops in the field need to be prepared to implement
a devastatingly bloody "Plan B' if
sharpshooters neutralizing key leaders fail to halt the surging mob.
And that "Plan B" has got to be so ferociously
effective that we will be able to honestly justify it for its efficacy.
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