Iran’s oil revenues up 500% since 2020

 When former President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, critics decried the move as unnecessarily hawkish. Yet, an explosive new report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tells a compelling story.

Under the present US administration, Iran has seen a significant surge in its oil export revenues, with figures soaring to over $41 billion in 2023. The rise in Iran’s oil exports is striking when compared to the mere $8 billion recorded in 2020, during the final year of the Trump administration. According to OPEC data, Iran’s daily export volume of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum products averaged about 1.73 million barrels last year, which is a staggering two and a half times higher than when Biden assumed office.

Traditionally, Iran systematically diverts a portion of its oil revenues to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its regional terror proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. However, Iran’s Supreme Audit Court announced on Sunday that the country has fallen short of its budgeted oil revenue targets by 26% despite increased exports.

 

From the Front Line - Haifa

 ( Written by Jeanine Hirschhorn)

At 09:35, I was walking down the stairs through a patch of Carmel forest next to my building pursuant to a doctor's visit.  When the siren sounded. Yet again.  I looked around and realized there was no place to run, no place to hide.  So I stood facing the wall of an apartment bloc that borders the forest patch.  And then I heard an explosion above my head.  Not high in the sky. But perhaps 30 meters above my head.  I looked up and saw the smoke from an exploded rocket/interceptor.  Then I watched as three more rockets/interceptors exploded above me.  I braced myself, waiting for the pain of shrapnel or the blow from falling pieces of metal.  But none of that  happened.  

I waited a few more minutes facing the building, looked up . . . and then continued on my way.  I'm alive.  I won. They lost.   

I'm alive, I won, they lost is very much the mentality of the region vis-a-vis conflict.  As long as you remain alive, you are considered to be a formidable leader, a successful warrior on the battlefield.  It doesn't matter that all around you is on fire and destroyed. It doesn't matter that your populace has fled, that your society is in chaos.  It doesn't matter, as in Bashar al Assad's case, that much of your country is destroyed, ungovernable and bankrupt. Bashar is alive, therefore a formidable leader, a winner.  And the more Syria is destroyed while he remains alive, the more he is considered a respected and honored winner.  

Therefore, it doesn't matter to Iran that there proxies in Lebanon and Gaza have been decimated, reduced to rubble and ruin. It doesn't matter that many of their senior proxy terrorists and terror combatants are dead.  It doesn't matter that their ability to arm and finance is, at the moment, extremely difficult to non-existent.  The only thing that matters is that they are alive and can still strike Israel at will. They are still formidable warriors.  They are winning this jihad against the Jews. The Muslim world and much of the West cheers their continued success, and lavishes them with great praise, respect, honor. And fear.  This fear is exhibited by the West in its incessant calls for "ceasefires" and "proportional responses", displaying an obeisance to the victorious mullahs and their terrorist allies.  Further confirmation that Iran's pursuit of jihad for power, control and concomitant submission against not only the West but the entire Near/Middle East is a crowning success beyond all expectations and dreams. The victors dictate rules of engagement both to the Gulf despots ("severe repercussions for any assistance to the Infidels") and the West ("We've taught you a lesson. Any escalation at your own peril"). The mullahs are well aware that no one in the world will deter them, let alone stop them, from achieving their goal of total domination.  As long as they remain alive. 

And Israel?  Israel is not only fighting Islam's latest Salah-al-Din, but also a West terrified of Iran and its axis partners Russia and China and indifferent to dead Jews.  Israel will soldier on because victory means severely weakening or destroying Iran.  Even if it has to climb over a West prostrate before Iran in protection and fear to accomplish it. 

(Editor comments - An amazing analysis from a regular citizen with the motivation to survive)

UNIFIL as Human Shields for Hezbollah

 

Every House is a Terror Base.

 IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari led a tour inside a Hezbollah terrorist 
stronghold in southern Lebanon, explaining that the terrorists 
were planning an attack on northern Israel larger than the October 7 massacre.

He showed weapons and gear stored in a residential home, noting 
that all the houses in the area contain such arms, requiring the IDF to raid 
each house to dismantle the threat.

He also noted that Hezbollah’s storage of arms in the area 
violates UN resolution 1701.

Sinwar, Dead or Alive?

 Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has renewed contacts with mediators in Qatar, Israel’s Channel 12 News reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

On Friday, The New York Times reported that Sinwar is seeking a wider regional war and is not interested in reaching a truce with Jerusalem. 

The article noted that Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7 massacre and who is believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnels, believes that he won’t survive the war and has hardened his stances over the past weeks.

“Hamas has shown no desire at all to engage in talks in recent weeks, U.S. officials say. They suspect that Mr. Sinwar has grown more resigned as Israeli forces pursue him and talk about closing in on him,” per the Times.

The article noted that Israel has questioned whether Sinwar is still alive, with U.S. and Israeli officials acknowledging that there had been no sign of him for months. However, in the absence of hard evidence of his death, American officials believed he was still alive and in charge of Hamas.

Channel 12 said over the weekend that the Qatari officials involved in negotiations between Israel and Hamas told family members of hostages that Sinwar has surrounded himself with captives and that despite his disappearance, there is no indication of his death.

“Sinwar is currently not communicating with us. He has disappeared from us as well and has not made contact. He stopped using phones because of the assassinations, and now he communicates using paper and pen, which makes things very difficult,” the Qataris reportedly said.

Israel's Enemies "Celebrate" October 7th

 As we enter the sombre atmosphere of October 7th, the whole country is warned to be extra alert.  All terror groups wish to ‘commemorate’ Oct. 7 with more blood.  Terror attempts and extra rocket attacks are possible.

Already there have been:-

a) INFILTRATION ATTACK (NORTH)!  6 terrorists entered Israel from Lebanon via a tunnel, all of them were eliminated.  Apparently planned a massacre for today, were exposed by the IDF and eliminated.

b) SUICIDE DRONES (2) at RISHON L’ZIYON this morning!  Intercepted - “from the east”, possibly from Houthis - Yemen or from Iranian Shia militias Iraq.

c) ROCKET STRIKE HAIFA - late night, restaurant hit! 4 injured.  13 year old boy, shrapnel injury to the head. Hezbollah: “We bombed an IDF base.”

d) ROCKET STRIKE TIBERIAS - late night, 1 injured.

e) HAMAS ATTEMPTS COMMEMORATION ATTACK!  The IDF thwarted an immediate threat, following preliminary preparation and the identification of an intention by the terrorist organization Hamas to fire at the territory of the State of Israel, attacking multiple launch positions and a tunnel route.

f) Propaganda is expected today from Hamas who are expected to publish videos of hostages or a special message from Hamas leader Sinwar today. This may not happen as Sinwar seems to have disappeared.

g) As of publishing this blog at 4pm, 4 rockets have been fired into Israel by Hamas and 90 by Hezbollah

Videos from Iran show the transport of large amounts of missiles throughout the country.  Experts are suggesting they are redistributing missiles to prevent Israeli targeting opportunities.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant has said to CNN: An Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is not ruled out. However there are persistent rumours from the US suggesting that American officials have offered Israel extensive diplomatic backing and additional military assistance if they refrain from attacking certain targets in Iran. (Most would refer to this as blackmail!)

SUMMARY. There have been 885 civilian casualties, of which 53 were children under the age of 18 and more than 70,000 refugees of hostilities, since the beginning of the war. There are now 923 orphans and 340,000 dunams (85,000 acres) of Israeli territory have been burned.

Hezbollah's Terror Tunnel

 A tour through a terror Tunnel built by Hezbollah

From the Front Line in Haifa

 (From the front line in Haifa - thanks to Jeanine Hirschhorn)

Israel is under siege from her enemies.  Iran's 180 . . . or 200 . . . or 300 . . . or 500 depending on which reportage you indulge . . .missile barrage fell on central/southern/eastern Israel. Plenty of Pulizer-worthy images of interceptors  lighting up Israel's evening skies from Beersheva to Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and Iran missiles sailing over the Kotel and Al Aqsa.  Except for the north, no one was spared. Even the West Bank took a direct hit, killing one Palestinian in a village near Jericho.  An irony no medium outside of Israel will report.

While the rest of Israel was under siege from Iran's missiles, the North was outside of Iran's kill zone and quiet.  Well, except for the terrorists who've been lobbing rockets - whose explosions I sometimes hear and have to do the bomb shelter dash due to constant missiles all over the north/far north of Israel for the past 10 days. Directly after Iran's ballistic missile barrage, the terrorists lobbed a few rockets into a couple of border towns. Just so we wouldn't feel left out, I guess.  

Other terrorists (from Hebron) murdered 6 and 7 were wounded - or murdered 8 and 17 were wounded depending on which reportage you indulge - at a light-rail station near Yaffo.  Terrorists walked off the train and began shooting.  The terrorists were shot dead.  

IDF tanks continue to roll north on the road to Beirut. They've done it so many times, no doubt they didn't even bother to access Google Maps.  I had hoped they'd finally eliminate the above-mentioned terrorists who've been lobbing rockets all over the north.  But nope, they're still lobbing, last lob was at 08:54.

The Gaza battle continues, largely muted by newer battles and fronts.  The fate of Israel's 101 Hamas captives fades in the press of more existential demands. 

Some of the more responsible media are finally calling this war what it has been all along; not Israel versus "Palestine" or Gaza or even Hezbollah, but Israel versus Iran and Iran's pursuit via jihad for regional power and control. 

Rosh Hashana, which begins in  a few hours, is going to be a bust this year. All public Rosh Hashana celebrations are cancelled. So are Yom Kippur commemorations.  But one can hope for something that passes for a festive atmosphere for the week of Sukkot.  Maybe.

 

Palestinians Can’t Even Agree Amongst Themselves

(From the Al Qabas newspaper, Kuwait, August 22)

 On February 8, 2007 Fatah and Hamas agreed to sign the Mecca Agreement. In this historic accord 4 pivotal agreements emerged from these discussions.

    a)     halting and preventing further bloodshed among Palestinians and unifying the stance against occupation through dialogue to resolve political differences.

    b)     forming a Palestinian unity government.

    c)     revitalizing and reforming the Palestine Liberation Organization, and accelerating the efforts of the Preparatory Committee in line with the Cairo and Damascus agreements.

    d)     upholding the principle of political partnership based on existing Palestinian Authority laws, emphasizing political pluralism.

      Only weeks later, Hamas staged a coup against the PA and seized control of the Gaza Strip, rendering the Mecca Agreement seemingly ineffective.

In 2009, There was an Egyptian mediation attempted to reconcile the factions, giving rise to the Egyptian Paper, followed by the Cairo Agreement in 2011. Yet, these efforts too yielded no meaningful results.

The Doha Agreement in 2012, facilitated by the former emir of Qatar, this was succeeded by the Beach Camp Agreement in 2014. This failed within 6 months.

In October 2017, the Cairo Agreement emerged yet again, and both parties agreed to empower the Government of National Accord. However, the division remained.

Now, in 2024, driven by urgency and the relentless war on Gaza the Palestinians are seeking to sign yet another agreement, the Beijing Declaration.

Neither the Mecca agreement nor the 13 subsequent agreements over the years were honoured. Will the Beijing Agreement be any different?

Bad News for Hezbollah

With thanks to www.benherskowitz.com