The North Is at Risk of Flaring Up

 (With thanks to Amit Segal)

 It’s Monday, November 17, and what does Benjamin Netanyahu cancelling his Wednesday testimony in his criminal trial for a “security reason” have to do with the north flaring up? Let’s break it down.

 With reports flowing about money and weaponry being smuggled into Lebanon, and the rate of IDF strikes intercepting these deliveries increasing, Israeli security officials are concerned that the northern border is moving worryingly close to another outbreak of violence.

 Don’t forget: two weeks ago, I wrote that foreign intelligence officials believe Hezbollah has partially reestablished its smuggling route—and is doing so at a pace the Lebanese military cannot compete with.

 But after receiving such a beating at the hands of Israel, and after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria cut off a vital supply route, many of you were probably wondering how Hezbollah is already rearming itself. Well, thanks to Ynet’s Ron Crissy, we now have a partial answer.

 “After air and land routes were shut and senior Quds Force operatives were killed,” Crissy wrote, “Iran and Hezbollah rebuilt a smuggling system relying on third countries, maritime routes and money-exchange networks, transferring arms and hundreds of millions of dollars.”

 Indeed, since the beginning of 2025, Iran has sent around one billion dollars to Hezbollah, according to the U.S. Treasury, primarily “through money-exchange agencies and cash-based businesses, using legitimate financial mechanisms to disguise its origin and destination,” Crissy explained.

 But what about Syria? “They shifted smuggling networks to Turkey and Iraq [and] made greater use of maritime routes,” according to Crissy, who noted that Iran and Hezbollah have even changed the actual materials they are smuggling: instead of bringing weapons into Lebanon, the Iranian proxy is smuggling components in pieces and reassembling them inside Lebanon.

 Why? According to the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Crissy wrote, “the shift from ‘weapons transport’ to ‘independent production capability’ inside Lebanon allows Hezbollah to rely less on vulnerable supply lines and more on local manufacturing based on Iranian know-how, parts and technology.”

 Ok, so let’s put this all together. Hezbollah is rearming; the Lebanese military is failing—or refusing—to disarm it; Washington is threatening “to leave Beirut to its fate” if it continuously fails to dismantle Hezbollah; Israel is increasing its strikes on Hezbollah smuggling missions; the IDF is on heightened alert in the north; and now, Israel’s prime minister has cancelled his upcoming testimony for a “security reason.”

 Putting aside the absurdity that, in order to get out of court, Netanyahu has to publicly announce to Israel’s enemies that there are critical security developments in the offing, one can’t help but wonder: what does Jerusalem have in store for Lebanon?