(Cross posted from the Alma Research and Education Center
, your eyes and ears on the northern border)
On Sunday morning, just before dawn, Israel's northern communities
were shaken awake by the sounds of explosions. A scene that has become far too
familiar in recent months. At 4:30 AM, residents of the Western Galilee were
jolted from their sleep by what would later be confirmed as an intense wave of
Israeli Air Force preemptive strikes. The IAF said it struck thousands of
Hezbollah launch barrels and thwarted a major attack, which Hezbollah had hoped
would serve as its revenge for the July 30 elimination of Hezbollah military
chief of staff Fuad Shukar in Beirut.
These Israeli preemptive attacks, consisting of some 100 fighter
jets targeting Hezbollah positions with an unprecedented level of intensity, is
unmatched since the start of the ongoing conflict. The strikes were aimed at
Hezbollah's UAV, missile, and rocket-launching capabilities. Those in
particular, it seems, housed in underground bunkers. Most of the strikes hit
Hezbollah targets in open areas.
As the IAF strikes subsided, Hezbollah responded with a barrage of
rocket fire, targeting northern Israel. This counterattack, which began around
5:30 AM and lasted for nearly an hour, demonstrated the resilience of
Hezbollah's operational capabilities, despite the recent IAF strikes. From the
balconies of their homes, residents could see the confrontation unfold, as
rockets flew overhead and explosions echoed across the region. By 6:40 AM, a
brief lull occurred, only for the hostilities to resume at 7:30 AM with another
round of Israeli strikes, likely targeting the same rocket launchers Hezbollah
had used earlier that morning and further degrading Hezbollah's offensive
capabilities.
According to reports, the Israeli strikes not only disrupted
Hezbollah's immediate plans but also inflicted severe damage on their missile
infrastructure, including underground facilities. The intensity of the IAF's
bombardment was such that local residents, including those in the Upper
Galilee, reported hearing and feeling the impacts from miles away.
However, the broader implications of Sunday's events raise
important questions about the conflict. While the Israeli strikes were
undoubtedly successful in their immediate objectives — preventing a large-scale
Hezbollah attack and significantly damaging its launch capabilities — there are
limitations to what these military actions can achieve.
Notably, Hezbollah's infrastructure within civilian areas in
southern Lebanon remained largely untouched. This restraint on Israel's part
highlights the delicate balance it must maintain: Effectively degrading
Hezbollah's military capabilities while minimizing civilian casualties and
avoiding a broader conflict that could spiral out of control.
The situation is further complicated by Hezbollah's calculated use
of civilian areas for military purposes. According to IDF assessments, since
the start of the northern war, 90% of Hezbollah’s rocket launches were launched
from civilian areas and facilities.
Despite Israel's calls for Lebanese civilians to evacuate potential
conflict zones, Hezbollah continues to operate in these areas, complicating
Israel's efforts to strike without causing significant collateral damage.
Sunday's escalation also points to a deeper strategic dilemma.
While the strikes were a tactical success, they are unlikely to bring about a
significant shift in the overall conflict on their own. A single isolated
operation, no matter how successful, cannot decisively alter the strategic
balance. For a meaningful change to occur, sustained pressure and a broader
campaign would be necessary - something that the Israeli cabinet appears to be
contemplating, as indicated by the increase in operations targeting Hezbollah's
strategic infrastructure over the past week.
Both Israel and Hezbollah seem reluctant to trigger a full-scale
war, each for their own reasons. For Israel, the primary concern is avoiding a
conflict that could draw in additional regional actors and further destabilize
the already volatile situation. For Hezbollah, the heavy losses sustained in
recent strikes have likely tempered its willingness to escalate further, at
least for the time being. However, the underlying risk remains: As long as
Hezbollah retains a significant terrorist-military capability, the possibility
of a broader conflict remains ever present.
Israel continues to assess the damage inflicted on Hezbollah and
weighs its options, knowing that while the immediate threat may have been
mitigated, the broader challenge of neutralizing Hezbollah's military power
still looms large.