Ceasefire in Lebanon?

According to many sources, following US representative Hochstein’s visit to Israel last week and to Beirut, a ceasefire deal is “close” with Lebanon.

A leader of the Shi’ite movement Amal, Berri has served as an interlocutor for talks between the U.S. and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization.

Following the visit, Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem said that Hezbollah had reviewed the proposed ceasefire, issued its response to Hochstein, and that the matter was now up to Israel.

Hochstein reportedly pressed top Israeli officials over the weekend, warning them that this marks the administration’s final attempt to broker a ceasefire, and that a rejection by Jerusalem would end efforts by the Biden White House to bring the two sides to a deal.

Netanyahu has reportedly agreed in principle to the ceasefire deal, and is now mulling how to present the decision to the Israeli public.

While the ceasefire deal has yet to be finalized and some key sticking points remain, it would reportedly include three major provisions, and would be implemented in three stages.

According to reports last week, under the American proposal:-

a) Hezbollah would be required to withdraw its forces away from the Israeli border and north of the Litani River, with the terrorist group also obligated to disarm, in keeping with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

b)  a U.S.-led committee would be tasked with ensuring compliance with the ceasefire.

c)  Israel would retain the right to respond militarily in Lebanon to violations of the ceasefire, but only after the committee exhausts other avenues for restoring the peace.

Clause (c) is the real problem for Israel since every monitoring group established to keep the peace has failed in its mission whether it was the border with Egypt, Syria or Lebanon. In the current wording, Israel’s actions would be severely limited in the case of violations as a ”committee” has to evaluate other avenues before giving the green light for Israeli action.

In the first stage of the deal, a ceasefire would be imposed during which Hezbollah would withdraw from the southern bank of the Litani River.

Afterwards, Israeli forces would withdraw from Lebanese territory.

In the third and final stage, Israel and Lebanon would enter into talks regarding contested border areas.