(With thanks to Alma Research & Education Center)
In recent years, Iran has been building proxy militia forces across the
Middle East. In recent months, especially during Ramadan and the Iranian Quds
Day (the last Friday of each Ramadan), Iran has aggressively marketed the
narrative of the 'joint operations room' and the unity of arenas, involving all
factions that fight against Israel.
The assessment that Israel will have to deal with a number of fronts has grown
stronger.
Initial responses to the operation in Gaza from Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis,
the Shi'ite militias, and the leadership of PIJ in Syria and Lebanon also
included the 'unity of arenas' narrative.
However, as the hours passed by and the response by PIJ to the IDF's opening
strike became delayed, it became clear that it is not so easy for Iran to
implement its multi-front vision against Israel.
The sense of solidarity that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah tried to push in
his May 12 speech amounted to mere words. Clearly, he is not interested in
threatening Israel with war for someone else's interests. It is worth recalling
that last summer, Hezbollah threatened war if no agreement would be reached
over the maritime border that would allow Lebanon to extract natural gas from
the Mediterranean Sea.
The current escalation
revealed that Iran's "multiple fronts" vision is not so easy to
fulfill and that the Iranians will have to generate an interest for each player
to harness it for war against Israel.
Following the elimination of PIJ's senior command by Israel (six senior
operatives in total), the organization's leadership abroad took over the
decision-making. This leadership, located mainly in Syria, is in close contact
with Iran and is heavily influenced by it - and less influenced by the mediator
- Egypt (PIJ is fully funded by Iran to the tune of tens of millions of dollars
a year).
This time it was clear that PIJ operatives fighting in the field wanted to
reach a ceasefire – But behind the scenes, as the hours went by, Iranians
exerted heavy pressure to continue launching rockets into Israel.
As has always been said – the Iranians will fight against Israel until the last Palestinian.
They have no real interest in promoting the Palestinian issue or caring for
Palestinians.